As global oil stocks stubbornly hold on to the brims and crude struggles to stay in the $50-60/barrel band, OPEC and its non-OPEC collaborators are facing declining revenues and increasingly wavering quota discipline.
Meanwhile, the US, Libya and Nigeria collectively pumped 1.6 million b/d more crude in July versus last October. Deepening the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts appears to be the need of the hour but that is not on the table unless there is full compliance and Libya and Nigeria are brought into the fold of the production restraint agreement. The emphasis has turned to ensuring full discipline, something that will need a lot of effort for relatively small immediate gains. OPEC wants to achieve compliance through monitoring members’ exports, which is neither easy nor fail-safe.
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